North-east sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet to undergo the greatest inland expansion of supraglacial lakes during the 21st century
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چکیده
18 The formation and rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes (SGL) influences the mass balance and 19 dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Although SGLs are expected to spread inland 20 during the 21 century due to atmospheric warming, less is known about their future spatial 21 distribution and volume. We use GrIS surface elevation model and regional climate model 22 outputs to show that at the end of the 21 century (2070-2099) approximately 9.8±3.9 km 23 (+113% compared to 1980-2009) and 12.6±5 km (+174%) of meltwater could be stored in 24 SGLs under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios respectively. 25 The largest increase is expected in the north-eastern sector of the GrIS (191% in RCP 4.5 and 26 320% in RCP 8.5), whereas in west Greenland, where the most SGLs are currently observed, 27 the future increase will be relatively moderate (55% in RCP 4.5 and 68% in RCP 8.5). 28
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